Israel’s Miscalculation: How an Attack United Iran

Photo and video of Eid Qadir ceremony taken by the Author
Written by Barzin Jafartash Amiri, chief editor of Voice of Manufacturing in Iran
War Comes Home: Air Defense Sirens in the Heart of Tehran

I never imagined I’d one day lie in bed in a small apartment in Tehran, listening to the relentless roar of air defense systems. But in the early hours of June 13, 2025, Israel’s military attack on Iran turned that into reality. For hours, until nearly 4 a.m., explosions filled the night. I had written weeks earlier that any foreign aggression would likely strengthen the Iranian government by rallying people against an external enemy. That prediction, sadly, came true.

When the skies finally quieted, I drifted into an uneasy sleep and awoke to Eid al-Qadir—a significant Shia holiday. But the silence outside belied the storm of emotions building within the city.

From Fear to Fury: How Ordinary Iranians Reacted

Stepping out to gauge the public mood, I visited my barber, Mustafa. A 38-year-old gym enthusiast with no strong religious affiliations, his face was tense with anger. The blasts had terrified his young daughter, forcing him to move his family to Karaj overnight. Yet amid his frustration, he praised Iran’s military leaders—Major Generals Ali Bagheri and Gholam Ali Rashid—and passionately called for a retaliatory strike with “thousands of hypersonic missiles.”

He wasn’t alone. At the computer market, I overheard shopkeepers—typically vocal critics of the state due to economic hardships—arguing that Iran must strike back hard so Israel would “deeply regret” its aggression. These weren’t regime loyalists; they were ordinary people pushed toward unity.

Unlikely Supporters: Barbers, Bazaari, and Former Dissidents Rally

This was just the beginning. In the days that followed, unexpected voices joined the chorus of national solidarity. Former political prisoners, leaders of the Green Movement like Mehdi Karroubi (still under house arrest), members of banned political groups like Nehzat-e Azadi, and even individuals from the Bahá’í community publicly condemned Israel’s attack and expressed support for the Iranian military.

This wasn’t performative. It felt genuine—a rare moment of national cohesion. Historian Hossein Dehbashi put it bluntly on social media:
“You may not believe it, but Israel—with this war—guaranteed the survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran for another fifty years.”
Even opposition figures like Masih Alinejad, a longtime advocate for regime change, admitted that Israel’s attack had “set the project of regime change back 15 to 20 years.

Unity on Display: Tens of Thousands March on Eid al-Qadir

Despite the chaos of the night before, tens of thousands of people flooded the streets for Eid al-Qadir celebrations, stretching from Enghelab Square to Valiasr. Conservatives, liberals, and apolitical citizens walked side by side in a show of unity few had expected. It was a powerful rebuttal to narratives predicting panic or internal fracture. If anything, the attack had fused fragmented identities into a shared sense of resistance.

A Nation Rallies: From Political Prisoners to Religious Minorities

The unity transcended political and religious lines. Figures long critical of the Islamic Republic—some who had suffered under it—rallied behind the government. For many, Israel’s strikes crossed a red line. They weren’t defending the system; they were defending their homeland. The enemy, this time, came from outside, and that changed everything.

Israel Secured the Regime for 50 Years”: A Historian’s Verdict

The irony was not lost on anyone. Israel, aiming to weaken the regime, had done the opposite. By trying to exploit internal divisions, it had instead unified the very groups it hoped would rise in revolt. The historical comparison to Saddam Hussein’s failed gamble in 1980 was impossible to ignore.

A Painful Parallel: Saddam Hussein’s Miscalculation Repeated

In the early days of the Iran–Iraq War, Saddam Hussein believed internal dissent would cause the Islamic Republic to collapse. Instead, his invasion triggered an eight-year-long resistance and unified the nation. Israeli leaders Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett seemed to echo Saddam’s miscalculations—urging Iranians to “stand up” and “free themselves.” But like Saddam, they underestimated the psychological power of foreign bombs.

Civilian Tragedy: The Faces of Innocent Lives Lost

The human cost of Israel’s attack made any ambiguity vanish. Among the dead: 20 children, a teenage poet and her family, a fitness coach, university professors, scientists, and off-duty soldiers resting at home with their families. In one of the most tragic moments, two-month-old Rayan Ghasemian was killed in a strike on a residential building.

As names and faces of victims emerged, emotions ran deep. Even among the skeptical and secular, the brutality of the attack pushed them to defend their homeland—and by extension, its leadership.

A Nuclear Turning Point: Public Calls for the Bomb Grow Louder

At a public gathering in Enghelab Square, I witnessed something unprecedented. An unveiled woman, filled with rage, shouted that Iran needed a nuclear bomb to deter further attacks. Her cry—“Hurry, hurry, we want an atomic bomb!”—was echoed by the crowd. This chant, once taboo, now echoed through the streets.

It was no longer just a government ambition—it had become a popular demand. Israel’s aggression may have catalyzed what years of negotiation and threat had failed to do: create a nuclear consensus among the Iranian public.

Strategic Misfire: How Israel’s Attack Backfired

In trying to fracture Iran, Israel instead hardened it. From Gen Z to elderly opposition figures, Iranians found themselves on the same side—defending their nation’s dignity. This was not a defense of authoritarianism, but of sovereignty. Israel’s miscalculation may prove as costly as Saddam’s, not just in blood, but in the long-term strategic balance of the region.

With national unity surging and calls for nuclear armament growing, one thing is clear: Israel’s aggression has forged a stronger, more defiant Iran.

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