Examining Israel’s “First Strike” Strategy, America’s “Madman Doctrine,” and Iran’s “Offensive Defense” Approach in This Conflict
Abstract
Postmodern wars symbolize profound transformations in the nature of warfare, where advanced technologies and information systems play a pivotal role. These conflicts go beyond traditional military battles, encompassing cyber, psychological, and informational operations aimed at the continuous degradation and exhaustion of the enemy. The extensive use of artificial intelligence, drones, and sophisticated communication tools has added new layers of complexity to warfare. In such a context, a precise understanding of the enemy’s strategies and tactics becomes crucial for preserving national security and ensuring an adequate state of defensive readiness.
The 12-Day War: The First Major War of the Postmodern Era
The 12-day war between Iran and the Western-Zionist front marked the first full-scale example of postmodern warfare. It combined military, psychological, cyber, and internal hybrid operations aimed at comprehensive erosion of Iran’s strength. This unprecedented conflict placed intense pressure on the country’s defensive and psychological structures, highlighting that future wars will extend beyond traditional battlefields into the realms of information, media, and society.
The Most Important Zionist Strategy in the 12-Day War
The Zionists’ main strategy in the 12-day war was the First Strike Strategy, aimed at surprising Iran, delivering a decisive blow, and forcing quick surrender. This approach relied on destroying critical infrastructure, limiting Iran’s response capabilities, and using advanced technologies and intelligence. The goal was to weaken Iran militarily and gain diplomatic leverage. However, the strategy failed due to underestimating Iran’s rapid response, strong defense systems, and national unity—resulting in a strategic defeat.
The U.S. strategy toward Iran
The U.S. adopted the “Madman Doctrine” against Iran, a strategy based on unpredictability and irrational threats to instill fear and prevent confrontation. Donald Trump tried to apply this through erratic decisions and constant pressure. However, this approach proved ineffective against Iran, just as it had failed in other historical cases like Vietnam and Ukraine. Iran rejected U.S. pressure and maintained its strategic stance.
Iran’s Strategy in the 12-Day War with Israel and the United States
In response to the joint U.S.-Israeli aggression, Iran employed an Aggressive Defense Strategy—absorbing the initial blows, quickly restoring command and firepower, and launching smart, coordinated counterattacks. Iran used advanced technology, including AI, cyber warfare, and drones, to disrupt enemy systems. Its unexpected resilience, rapid retaliation, and prolonged engagement shifted the balance of power, exposed the failure of Israel’s first strike, and forced a strategic retreat. Iran’s unity and national cohesion became key to its success, surprising both enemies and observers worldwide.
Is the War Truly Over — or Is There a Deception at Play?
The halt of the 12-day battle does not mark the end of the war, but rather reflects a phase within a broader postmodern warfare strategy. The pause allows the enemy to regroup and plan anew, making it critical to identify and fix the security, military, and intelligence gaps exposed during the conflict. Successful enemy assassinations and intelligence failures underscore the urgent need to overhaul outdated structures and build new institutions suited to emerging threats.
This study was conducted at Negah Strategic Think Tank by Alireza Dianinejad in 2025.
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