Examining possible scenarios in Venezuela’s future after the kidnapping of this country’s president by the United States government
The formation of a pro-Western government in Venezuela appears unlikely. However, limited cooperation between the new Rodríguez government and the United States—particularly in areas such as oil resources—is possible. Following U.S. air strikes and the abduction of President Maduro, Venezuela has entered an uncertain political phase in which Maduro has been removed but the governing structure remains largely unchanged, leaving multiple future scenarios open.
First Scenario: Rodríguez’s Compromise with the West
After Maduro’s removal, Delcy Rodríguez assumed interim power and may seek a limited, pragmatic compromise with the United States, particularly on oil. Although he is not openly pro-Western, recent signals and past reports suggest possible engagement with Washington. However, strong anti-American sentiment makes any quick agreement unlikely.
Second Scenario: A Military Coup
A full Western shift by Venezuela’s new government could trigger a military coup. Powerful Chavista figures, including Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, along with loyal military and paramilitary forces, may intervene to prevent a break from Maduro’s policies or force their continuation.
Third Scenario: Continuation of the Status Quo and Tensions with the United States
The likelihood that Rodríguez will shift toward the West may be overstated. Given his close ties to Maduro and the lack of internal divisions, the current system may persist, leading to ongoing military tensions with the United States and the risk of further air strikes.
Will Venezuela’s Opposition Return?
Venezuela’s opposition is unlikely to return to power due to the absence of internal collapse and limited U.S. support. While a pro-Western government is improbable, limited U.S.–Venezuela cooperation—especially on oil—remains possible. Otherwise, political conditions are expected to largely resemble the Maduro era.
This study is conducted by Tehran Think Tank in 2026.
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