The recent conflicts, notably the war on February 2026 , diverge significantly from the previous 12-day war. The main difference lies in the fundamental objectives from the outset. Analysts are divided on Israel’s intentions in the current war.
First Perspective of War on February 2026
Some argue that Israel’s military actions, such as targeting critical sites like the residence of Iran’s Supreme Leader and military command centers, indicate an immediate goal of regime change in Iran.
Second Perspective
Others believe that the initial strikes were primarily aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, with intentions for regime change developing as the conflict progressed.
In contrast, the current war’s initial events clearly indicate that the U.S. and Israel intend to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran, highlighted by efforts to assassinate its leaders and encourage public uprisings against the government.
Acceptance of Costs by Trump
The U.S. has historically pursued limited engagement to avoid casualties, exemplified by the 12-day war where its operations were calculated to minimize American losses.
However, recent statements from President Trump indicate a willingness to accept greater risks and casualties in this new conflict. The U.S. has already launched attacks on multiple Iranian and allied military bases in the region, signaling a shift in its operational strategy and cost acceptance compared to the earlier war.
Operational Strategy of Iran
Iran’s operational strategy has evolved significantly between the two wars. In the earlier conflict, Iran struggled with a cohesive and multi-faceted operational plan, creating limitations on its effectiveness.
Now, however, Iran appears to have developed a well-structured operational approach that includes:
- Prioritized target selection across Israel and regional U.S. bases.
- Enhanced capabilities to disrupt U.S. defense systems.
- Continued missile launches, adjusting for the potential escalation of conflict.
- Strategic pressure on regional adversaries, including maritime threats in the Persian Gulf.
This policy note is written by Tehran Think Tank in 2026.
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