The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel represents a significant strategic and political defeat for Israel. Initially bolstered by strong U.S. support, Israel now finds itself facing unprecedented political isolation and the collapse of its deterrence narrative. While military operations continue, the true battleground is shifting toward political legitimacy and global public opinion.
Breakdown of Western Support
Despite continued U.S. military and diplomatic backing, some European nations are expressing concerns about the ramifications of the conflict, such as energy crises and migration issues. This indicates a potential shift in public sentiment regarding Israel’s actions and suggests that Western support may not be as unreserved as in the past.
Cohesion of the Resistance Axis
Iran has successfully formed a multi-layered front of resistance that includes allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. This development has transformed the conflict from a bilateral confrontation into a broader civilizational struggle against Israel’s aggressive tactics. The unified efforts of these groups demonstrate a strategic precision that poses a significant challenge to Israel’s military operations.
Internal Crisis in Israel
Within Israel, the situation is marked by substantial internal turmoil. Public disagreements among leaders, military discontent, and economic pressures are contributing to rising political instability.
Global Power Paradigm Shift
The ongoing conflict is reshaping the global discourse surrounding power and legitimacy. Public opinion is increasingly opposing Israel’s aggressive policies while recognizing Iran’s right to self-defense. This evolving narrative is paving the way for a new order in the Middle East, where military power without ethical and political legitimacy is likely to falter.
Ultimately, the conflict highlights the decline of Israel’s previously unassailable military image and the emergence of a new narrative centered on resistance and legitimacy.
This policy note is written by Mahmoud Nazarnia, director of Governance Problems System Think Tank in 2026.
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