Shoaib Bahman, Head of Institute for Studies of Contemporary World
The debate over Iran’s ratification of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea goes beyond a technical or legal dispute. Three different currents are converging around concerns over Iran’s strategic position in the Caspian.
First Agenda: Azerbaijan-Linked Influence Networks
A network allegedly linked to Azerbaijan’s political and economic interests is portrayed as promoting Baku’s regional agenda through ethnic ties, commercial relations, and diplomatic channels.
Second Agenda: European Energy Strategy
Western-oriented actors are described as viewing the Caspian Sea primarily as an energy corridor connecting Central Asian resources to European markets. This could serve Europe’s energy diversification while leaving Iran with limited strategic benefits.
Third Agenda: Domestic Political Framing
The convention is also portrayed as a potential political tool against Iran’s new leadership, with its approval potentially being framed as an early failure on an issue associated with territorial and maritime sovereignty.
Conclusion: Strategic Intersection
The convention should be examined not merely as a legal document, but as the intersection of regional interests, energy geopolitics, and domestic political calculations. Greater transparency, expert scrutiny, and caution are presented as essential before any decision with long-term implications for Iran’s strategic position is made.
