The ongoing conflict among Iran, Israel, and the United States has sparked immediate reactions in global energy markets, raising the question: How high will oil prices go? With approximately 30% of the world’s oil and gas trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and near Oman are increasing the risk of supply reductions.
Shipping and Price Reactions
Reports indicate that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt, with over 150 tankers and LNG carriers stranded in the area. At least three tankers have reportedly been targeted, leading to disruptions in oil exports and refinery operations in the region, including attacks on Saudi Aramco and a drilling platform in the UAE. In Iraqi Kurdistan, oil production has faced significant disruptions, affecting the transportation of oil to Turkey.
Gas Market Impacts
Market reactions for gas have been even more severe. The halt of LNG carrier activities in the Strait of Hormuz and production interruptions in Qatar, which controls nearly 20% of the global LNG market, have led to significant shortages in Europe and Asia. This disruption has caused European gas prices to soar over 50%, reaching more than $62. Reports are also emerging about gas rationing in Indian industries.
Conclusion
Current oil prices remain lower than the projections made by institutions such as Goldman Sachs, which forecasted prices above $100 in the event of a complete Strait of Hormuz blockade. The critical factor is the potential disruption to supply from Persian Gulf nations and Iran. If the conflict persists and capabilities for any players shift, larger and more lasting spikes in oil and gas prices may be anticipated. To mitigate these risks, the U.S. is focusing efforts on weakening Iran’s offensive capabilities in the Persian Gulf and neutralizing its influence on global energy markets.
This study is conducted by Tehran Think Tank in 2026.
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