An analysis of the motivating factors and obstacles to China’s support for Iran during the 12-day war with the Zionist regime and the United States
Abstract
The history of international relations shows that the support of great powers for middle powers—especially during wartime—is a decisive factor in shaping power dynamics and determining the outcome of wars. Such support can take political, military, economic, and intelligence dimensions, significantly enhancing a middle power’s capacity for resistance or action. In the recent war, while the Zionist regime benefited from substantial backing by the United States and European countries, the Islamic Republic of Iran found itself alone in defending the homeland. This reality has turned the issue of potential support from major powers such as China and Russia into one of the most debated topics within Iran’s expert and media circles.
China’s support for Iran in the war with Israel is driven by several strategic factors:
- Preventing instability from spreading to Western China – Iran acts as a buffer against extremist threats reaching China’s borders.
- Slowing U.S. and NATO focus on East Asia – A resilient Iran forces the U.S. to allocate resources in West Asia, indirectly benefiting China.
- Reducing dependence on oil from U.S. allies and Russia – Iran provides China with diversified energy sources, enhancing its energy security.
- Limiting U.S. control over global chokepoints – Iran’s presence helps prevent American dominance over strategic maritime routes.
- Countering U.S. militarization strategies – Iran’s resistance offers a model for frustrating U.S. attempts to expand military influence in East Asia.
Constraints on China’s Support for Iran
1. Western Reactions – Arms transfers could trigger U.S. and EU sanctions and prompt increased military support for Taiwan.
2. Relations with Gulf States – Supporting Iran could harm China’s economic ties with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, and strengthen Iran’s regional leverage.
3. Complexity of West Asian Conflicts – China prefers economic tools over direct military intervention, recognizing the high risks of involvement.
Possible Areas of China’s Support for Iran
- Political – Publicly condemning attacks on Iran and blocking UN Security Council actions against it.
- Economic – Continuing and strengthening oil imports, helping fund defense and maintain domestic stability.
- Military – Providing covert logistical or infrastructural assistance without direct involvement in combat.
This study was conducted at Tehran International Studies & Research Institute by Mostafa Kooshki in 2025.
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