Note from the Center for Strategic and International Analysis on Examining Russia’s Performance in Evasion of U.S. and European Union Sanctions During the War with Ukraine
Abstract
After the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022 and the imposition of sanctions, along with increasing political and economic pressures against Russia, many believed that Ukraine would become Russia’s Vietnam and the country would get stuck in a quagmire. Many predicted that Russia’s economy would crumble under Western sanctions and that Russia would soon retreat. However, three years into the war, not only has Russia not retreated in any of the economic, military, diplomatic, or media domains, but negotiations between Russia and the U.S. in Saudi Arabia, followed by statements from American officials, have shown that Russia holds an upper hand in the overall situation of the Ukraine crisis.
Thus, the question of how Russia was able to continue its path with strength despite the relentless efforts of the West to bring it to its knees and maintain an advantage in negotiations is worth reflecting upon. Analyzing Russia’s behavior can offer valuable lessons for Iran, which faces very similar pressures from the West.
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Persistence on Key Positions and Strategic Objectives:
Russia’s main reason for entering the war with Ukraine was NATO’s expansion towards its borders. Despite initial verbal warnings, Russia eventually used military force to defend its red lines. Now, in negotiations with the U.S., Russia continues to emphasize Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO and the rights of ethnic Russians, while calling for the removal of Zelensky and elections in Ukraine.
Powerful in the Economic Arena Despite Challenges and Difficulties
The economic sanctions and restrictions imposed by the West, particularly on Russia’s banking sector and imports, significantly impacted Russia’s economy but did not cause the country to retreat. Instead, Russia focused on expanding economic ties with non-Western partners, including China, India, Arab countries, and Latin America, while increasing involvement in organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation.
Russia adapted quickly to economic challenges, such as redirecting surplus gas to domestic industries, which led to growth in fertilizer production and the capture of European markets. Despite facing difficulties, Russia never showed weakness, instead leveraging new opportunities and strengthening ties with new partners. Sergei Lavrov confirmed that Russia would not raise the issue of lifting sanctions in negotiations with the U.S.
Continuing Ground Advancements
Russia has never retreated from its ground advancements, even as negotiations continue. It set red lines, such as opposing the provision of long-range offensive weapons to Ukraine. After Ukraine used long-range missiles like ATACMS and STORM-SHADOW in November 2024, Russia responded by using its hypersonic missiles to issue a warning to Ukraine and the West.
This study was conducted at International and Strategic Analysis (ISA) Center by Soheil Fazli in the year 2025.
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