Technology has become a key driver of economic growth, productivity, and competitiveness. A country’s trade in technology-intensive products reflects its production capacity, innovation potential, participation in global value chains, and ability to generate value added. Therefore, assessing foreign trade in technological products and identifying existing imbalances are essential for effective economic and industrial policymaking. Reducing import dependence, expanding higher-tech exports, and diversifying markets and trading partners are critical to achieving sustainable growth, strengthening technological capabilities, and enhancing economic resilience.
Definition of Foreign Trade Imbalance Through the Lens of Technology
Foreign trade imbalance extends beyond the gap between exports and imports to include instability, limited trading partners, declining competitiveness, and widening technology gaps. In technological trade, it encompasses trade balances, partner diversification, product quality, and other indicators of sustainability.
Cross-Sectional Analysis
In 2023 (1402), Iran’s technological exports had lower value relative to weight than imports, indicating lower value added in exported products. More than 70% of technological imports came from China, the UAE, and Türkiye, highlighting the need for stronger R&D incentives and greater technological independence.
Time-Series Analysis
Import restrictions in the late 2000s helped increase exports of low- and medium-tech products, but product quality and competitiveness failed to keep pace with global technological progress. High-tech trade has faced growing imbalances, declining export diversification, and greater import dependence, although its broader range of trading partners suggests continued export potential.
Policy Recommendations for Reducing Technological Trade Imbalances
- Expand exports of electronics, computers, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
- Strengthen value chains and improve the quality of medium- and high-tech products.
- Diversify trade and currency partners to reduce dependence on Iraq, Türkiye, and the UAE.
- Reduce the UAE’s transit role by developing alternatives such as Oman.
- Introduce R&D incentives for transformative technologies to reduce dependence on China.
- Prioritize neighboring and sanctioned countries, including Russia, Venezuela, and Cuba, for technological trade.
- Give greater priority to Russia in facilitating medium- and high-tech trade.
This study is conducted at Forsat Center by Saeed Daghineh in 2026.
To read more, download full paper
