The hidden U.S.–Pakistan strategic partnership has emerged as a significant factor reshaping geopolitical dynamics in South and West Asia. Despite periods of diplomatic tension, Washington and Islamabad appear to be moving toward a pragmatic and multidimensional alignment driven by shared security, economic, and strategic interests. This evolving cooperation extends beyond bilateral relations and directly influences the regional balance of power, particularly in relation to Iran, India, China, and Saudi Arabia.
Strategic Drivers of the Hidden Partnership
Several factors explain the formation of the hidden U.S.–Pakistan strategic partnership:
- Shared Strategic Interests:
Energy and mineral development projects in Pakistan—particularly in Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—have attracted American investment. Agreements reportedly signed in 2025 signal U.S. interest in securing long-term access to strategic energy resources in a geopolitically sensitive region. - Security and Counter terrorism Cooperation:
Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, intelligence-sharing, satellite data exchange, and counterterrorism coordination have intensified. High-level military engagements, including visits by Pakistan’s Army Chief, suggest renewed defense ties aimed at containing militant threats and balancing China’s regional leverage. - Economic and Trade Expansion:
Bilateral trade surpassed $6.3 billion in 2024, reflecting steady economic growth. U.S. tariff reductions, cooperation in digital infrastructure, IT, and cryptocurrency sectors, and energy collaboration indicate broader economic alignment. These measures also serve Washington’s strategy to counter China’s economic dominance in Pakistan. - Balancing China’s Influence:
The hidden U.S.–Pakistan strategic partnership is partly rooted in Washington’s recalibration amid shifting regional dynamics. As India pursues a more autonomous foreign policy and reduces tensions with China, the United States appears to be strengthening ties with Pakistan to prevent excessive Chinese influence, particularly within the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Dimensions of the Hidden U.S.–Pakistan Strategic Partnership
U.S.–Pakistan strategic partnership includes military and intelligence cooperation, economic agreements involving energy and critical minerals, and coordinated media campaigns targeting extremists and regional rivals.
Regional Geopolitical Consequences
The hidden U.S.–Pakistan strategic partnership has far-reaching implications:
- Iran:
Increased U.S.–Pakistan security coordination heightens pressure on Iran’s eastern borders and challenges Tehran’s regional influence. Energy cooperation between Washington and Islamabad may weaken Iran’s position in South Asian energy markets. - India:
Enhanced Pakistani military and intelligence capabilities shift the regional balance, particularly regarding Kashmir. New U.S.–Pakistan economic projects could sideline India and complicate its role in American Indo-Pacific strategy. - China:
The partnership poses risks to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, especially CPEC. U.S. access to strategic data and security networks in Pakistan could disrupt Beijing’s long-term regional calculations. - Saudi Arabia:
Riyadh may face reduced leverage if Pakistan diversifies its energy partnerships and security alignments, potentially altering traditional Gulf–South Asia dynamics.
This study was conducted at Tehran International Studies & Research Institute by Somayeh Morovati in 2026.
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