This analysis examines pre-war scenarios of a potential Iran–U.S. conflict through a mechanism-based strategic foresight approach. Rather than focusing solely on outcomes, it identifies the causal mechanisms shaping conflict dynamics and strategic decision-making.
Four Major Iran–U.S. War Scenarios
In this part, Four major scenarios were evaluated before the conflict:
- State Collapse
- Regional Escalation
- Geoeconomic Disruption
- Tactical Compromise Under Military and Economic Pressure
These scenarios were classified into three analytical logics: cascade collapse, survival-driven escalation, and weaponization of global interdependence.
Geoeconomic Leverage Emerged as the Most Accurate Scenario for Explaining the Conflict’s Evolution
The analysis concludes that the geoeconomic leverage scenario—including disruption of strategic energy routes and increasing economic costs—most closely matched the conflict’s trajectory. Meanwhile, predictions of rapid political or structural collapse were not supported, demonstrating that military degradation does not necessarily lead to state failure.
Strategic Foresight Requires Integrating Military, Geoeconomic, Diplomatic, and Asymmetric Factors
The study highlights that effective strategic foresight and scenario planning require understanding the interaction between military power, asymmetric warfare, geoeconomics, diplomacy, and third-party actors. Future assessments should adopt a complex systems perspective rather than relying on linear assumptions about conflict escalation and political outcomes.
This policy note is written by Sajjad Abbasi, Ph.D. Candidate in Strategic Foresight and a Researcher at the Hazrat Vali-e Asr (AJ) Research Institute, Imam Hossein University (IHU) in 2026.
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