Understanding China’s strategic drivers, doctrines, and long-term priorities requires close study of its top-level policy documents and Five-Year Plans. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan is not merely an economic program but a strategic roadmap shaping Beijing’s response to global competition, the evolving international order, and national security challenges through 2030 and toward 2035. Its strategic developments are therefore highly significant for understanding China’s geopolitical trajectory and for countries such as Iran seeking to strengthen relations with emerging powers within a multipolar world order.
Shift in Beijing’s Perception of the International Environment
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan reflects a major shift in Beijing’s strategic outlook—from a focus on opportunity to coexistence with risk, competition, and uncertainty.
- From strategic opportunity to risk–opportunity balance: Unlike the 14th Plan, which emphasized a “period of important strategic opportunities,” the new plan recognizes that opportunities, risks, and challenges now coexist, reflecting a more uncertain and crisis-prone international environment.
- Growing centrality of great-power competition: The plan explicitly identifies great-power relations as a key driver of global change and acknowledges that competition has become more complex and intense, particularly amid tensions with the United States over trade, technology, and security.
- From adaptation to active shaping: Beijing increasingly sees itself not merely as adapting to the international environment but as actively shaping it. This signals a move away from Deng Xiaoping’s traditional strategy of “hiding strength and biding time” toward a more proactive role in shaping global affairs.
- Stronger emphasis on struggle: The growing emphasis on the ability and willingness to “struggle” against external pressures suggests greater strategic preparedness for prolonged geopolitical competition and potential confrontation.
Prioritizing Technology and Value Chains
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan places high-quality development and technological self-reliance at the center of its national strategy.
– Technological self-reliance: Scientific and technological self-strengthening is elevated to a strategic priority alongside economic growth, reflecting China’s response to Western restrictions on advanced technologies such as semiconductors and AI.
– Leadership in emerging technologies: China aims to reach the frontier of industrial AI applications and strengthen its position in advanced technologies.
– Global standard-setting: By promoting Chinese standards internationally, Beijing seeks greater influence over global technology value chains, industrial development, and future markets.
– International influence: By 2035, strengthening China’s international influence is positioned alongside economic and defense capabilities as a core long-term strategic objective.
Transformation of the Belt and Road Initiative
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan seeks to make the Belt and Road Initiative more sustainable, socially responsive, and strategically integrated.
- Three new principles: High standards, improved livelihoods, and sustainability are emphasized to reduce financial and social risks and increase local acceptance.
- Three-dimensional connectivity: BRI now combines hard connectivity (infrastructure), soft connectivity (rules and standards), and people-to-people connectivity.
- “Small and beautiful” projects: Alongside major infrastructure projects, smaller and faster projects are increasingly prioritized, potentially creating practical opportunities for countries such as Iran.
From Passive Participation to Active Global Leadership
China is increasingly positioning itself as a norm-setter and architect of the emerging international order, rather than simply a participant.
- Chinese solutions and norms: Beijing seeks greater influence over global governance through initiatives such as the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative, while promoting Chinese approaches in AI, digital economy, green development, and space.
- Global South coalition-building: China is strengthening ties with the Global South and adopting a stronger anti-hegemonic narrative, while seeking a greater leadership role through “major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.”
Paradigm Shift in National Security and Defense
The 15th Plan increasingly integrates security and development as mutually reinforcing pillars of national resilience.
- Resistance to sanctions and coercion: China is strengthening mechanisms to counter foreign sanctions, external interference, and extraterritorial jurisdiction while protecting its overseas interests.
- Supply-chain security: The focus is shifting from simple diversification toward stability, controllability, and resilience, including investment in infrastructure and energy resources in partner countries.
- Military transformation: China is moving from basic military modernization toward advanced warfighting capabilities, emphasizing strategic deterrence, initiative, and the ability to shape the security environment rather than merely respond to crises.
This study is conducted by Mostafa Kooshki at Tehran International Studies & Research Institute in 2026.
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