An Analysis of the Causes Behind the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Government and Scenarios for the Country’s Future After Assad’s Regime
Abstract
Syria has experienced many transformations throughout its history, from the colonial period to independence and the rule of the Assad family. The country has been shaped by both internal and external factors, from the Sykes-Picot division to the establishment of the early republic and later the dominance of the Ba’ath Party. During Bashar al-Assad’s era, the civil war, the rise of extremist groups like ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, along with the intervention of global and regional powers, led the country into a deep crisis. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, various scenarios emerged for Syria and foreign powers, including Iran, making the analysis of these scenarios of great importance.
In this article you read about:
Causes of the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Government:
The weakness of the Syrian government, the decline in Assad’s power, and the support of foreign powers for Assad’s opponents.
Scenarios for Syria and Foreign Powers:
Domestic Scenarios:
1.Transition to a temporary government and national unity.
2.Division of the country into areas controlled by different groups, including Israel and Turkey.
3.Establishment of a government dominated by one of the Islamist groups.
Foreign Policy Scenarios:
1.The Islamic Republic of Iran
2.Russia
3.Turkey
Strategies for Iran
To strengthen Iran-Syria relations post-Syria’s loss, free trade is the best strategy. With Joulani’s hardline stance, proposing oil and goods trade is an opportunity. Iran should counter Israel’s presence with military and diplomatic strategies, strengthening ties with Syria and Turkey. Another strategy involves forming alliances and reducing trade with enemies, though this approach carries high risks.
This study was conducted at Saramad Think Thank in collaboration with Amirhossein Asgari and Aref Bizhan in 2023.
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