The recent targeted unrest in Iran represents an organized and externally supported campaign that went beyond economic protests, aiming to undermine national security and political stability through new and more complex methods.
How This Wave of Targeted Unrest in Iran Differs from Past Crises؟
Some of the differences between this wave of unrest and past crises include:
- Shift in the Enemy’s Strategy
Unlike previous crises focused on imposing costs, the current strategy explicitly targets regime overthrow through staged insecurity, terrorist involvement, and a combined internal chaos–external intervention scenario.
- Change in the Crisis Model
The unrest shifted from centralized, city-based riots to decentralized, neighborhood-based clusters operating independently, making containment more difficult and expanding instability into previously calm areas.
- Preemptive Urban Operations Design
Instead of gradually mobilizing crowds, rioters launched early coordinated attacks on security and military sites to seize weapons, intimidate the public, and accelerate chaos—an approach that ultimately failed due to security readiness.
- Change in Crisis Leadership Model
Leadership evolved from hierarchical organization to a “lone-wolf” model, where trained individuals independently carried out sabotage operations without direct organizational links to reduce vulnerability to disruption.
- Weapons and Equipment
The widespread use of firearms, incendiary devices, and advanced communication tools across cities indicates that the unrest constituted an armed conflict and a continuation of warfare by non-military means.
- Updating the Riot Platform
The enemy reframed the unrest from a political issue to an economic one, promoting a “livelihood crisis” narrative to legitimize riots, despite protesters quickly distancing themselves from violent actors.
Recommended Strategies to Address Future Crises
- Supporting Legal Assemblies and Demonstrations
- Strengthening Passive Defense
- Media Attachments to Major Economic Reforms
- International Legal and Diplomatic Follow-Up
Learning from the Crisis
Public cooperation in border provinces, the targeting of surveillance systems, and the role of marginalization reveal key lessons for improving security, technology use, and social policy reforms.
This study is conducted at Negah Strategic Think Tank in 2026.
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