An analysis of the current conditions in the Iran-Israel conflict, its driving factors, potential scenarios ahead, and the existing strategies for Iran’s victory in this war
Abstract
Since June 13, 2025, the illegitimate Zionist regime has launched its aggression against our country, causing significant damage to the nation, its commanders, scientists, and some key centers. In recent days, the Zionist regime has repeatedly changed its tactics, shifting its focus from missile and air strikes to undermining security through infiltration forces using shoulder-fired missiles and drones. In response, Iran has directed the war with Israel towards a war of attrition and has sought to turn the boomerang of Zionist and American psychological operations back towards the residents of the occupied territories. This has caused psychological unrest among the Zionists.
In this article you read about:
Analysis of Zionist Offensive Strategies Against Iran
The attacks on Iran are primarily carried out by internal Mossad agents using light shoulder-fired weapons and long-range drones, due to the enemy’s limited capability for direct air strikes. These operations are security-focused, well-planned, and rely heavily on surprise. Although Iran has countermeasures in place, there is still a risk of new attacks and potential U.S. involvement. The enemy is heavily focused on psychological warfare, and despite improvements in command leadership, security gaps remain.
Capabilities of Israel for Operations and War with Iran
Israel’s capabilities against Iran include a powerful air force with advanced fighters (F-15, F-16, F-35), drones used for surveillance and missile guidance across western Iran, and a sabotage network inside the country. While drones cover large areas, their full neutralization will take time. The internal sabotage network has limited effectiveness, likely lasting about a week due to security countermeasures.
Analysis of Iran’s Offensive and Defensive Strategy Model in the War with Israel
Iran has conducted organized, wave-based attacks focused on destroying the enemy’s military and nuclear infrastructure, achieving significant impact and preparing for a war of attrition. Strengths include gradual increase in forces and weapons, varied attacks, and the ability to strike across all of Israel. However, Iran faces weaknesses in intelligence, psychological operations, air defense, and cybersecurity, and the balance between offensive and defensive power is not yet optimal. There is also an opportunity to strengthen cohesion and better utilize its capacities.
Why Did the Zionists Start the War?
Destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities: Though publicly claimed, this goal is unlikely without US military involvement.
Create internal unrest: Israel aimed to weaken Iran’s public support and morale through psychological warfare.
Draw the US into the conflict: The attacks were coordinated with the US and NATO to bring America into the war.
Escape domestic political crisis: Netanyahu sought to extend his power amid internal protests by starting the conflict.Pressure Iran in negotiations: The attacks aimed to force Iran to make concessions in nuclear talks under military pressure.
Why is the Powerful Response of the Islamic Republic of Iran So Important?
Israel expected a quick advantage by targeting Iran’s commanders and defense systems, but Iran’s swift leadership replacement and air defense activation challenged that plan. Iran understands the war’s outcome will shape Middle Eastern power dynamics and global bloc relations. It aims to prove that the US and NATO’s support for Israel was a strategic mistake and that Iran can establish a new regional and international balance of power.
Possible Scenarios
Scenario One:
The conflict is a unique hybrid war involving cyber, missile, drone, and psychological operations. Iran manages a war of attrition and has greater resilience. Israel cannot sustain long-term conflict due to Iran’s military strength. The goal of Israel is to pressure Iran socially and psychologically to force negotiations. Even if the US joins, Iran can handle the conflict and advance its goals, likely isolating Israel diplomatically.
Scenario Two:
This involves full-scale escalation with Iran prepared to intensify the conflict, including withdrawing from the NPT and continuing nuclear enrichment. Any attack threatening Iran’s interests in the Gulf could escalate into a global crisis, possibly sparking a world war. Though less likely due to high risks, this scenario cannot be ruled out given the unpredictability of Israel and the US.
This study was conducted at Negah Strategic Think Tank by Alireza Dianinejad in 2025.
To read more, click here
